PROPENSITY TO FLY IN NIGERIA: A FORECAST OF DOMESTIC AIR PASSENGER TRAFFIC FLOW IN SOME NIGERIA AIRPORTS
Keywords:Airport, Decomposition method, Forecast, Holt’s winter method, Passenger travel demand, Time series analysis
This study carried out an assessment of the air passenger traffic flow in some airports in the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Secondary data used in the study was collected from Federal Airport Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) database. Time series features were studied using time series plot and autocorrelation plot against time lag. The forecasting capability of multiplication and additive decomposition models were compared to those of additive and multiplication Holt’s Winter methods and the prediction of passenger volume was based on the model with the lowest Mean Square Deviation (MSD) value. The result revealed that Abuja, Kano, Owerri and Yola airports showed upward trend, while Lagos and Port-Harcourt airports showed downward trend. The entire airports with the exception of Yola airport were found to be stationary. The 2017 and 2018 forecast on passenger traffic shows a consistence increase in the total passenger volume for Owerri, Kano and Abuja airports, while Lagos, Yola and Port-Harcourt airports shows slight decrease in the total passenger volume. Based on the results, airport investors should consider investment in Owerri, Kano and Abuja airports, as these airports shows a promising increase in passenger traffic.
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