A MARKOV CHAIN ANALYSIS OF EFFECT OF TRAFFIC LAW ENFORCEMENT ON ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS RATE IN OGUN STATE, NIGERIA

Authors

  • RA Folarin DEPT OF MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY, BELLS UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, OTA, OGUN STATE, NIGERIA
  • MK Onifade DEPT OF MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY, BELLS UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, OTA, OGUN STATE, NIGERIA

Keywords:

Markov chain analysis, traffic law enforcement, road traffic accident, unsafe acts, unsafe conditions, fatality, permanent injury

Abstract

Ogun State is known for road traffic accidents and fatalities. Out of the 36 states in Nigeria, five states usually combine to give 50% of accidents recorded in the country and Ogun State is among these states. Ten years accident and traffic violation data obtained from Ogun State Traffic Compliance and Enforcement Corps (TRACE) were used to assess the effect of traffic law enforcement on road traffic accidents rate in the state using Markov chain model. Markov chain model analysis  revealed that drivers in Ogun State committed unsafe acts (overspeeding, Using mobile phone while driving and driving without driver’s license)  55 times and unsafe condition (driving without using seatbelt) 16 times before experiencing fatality or permanent disability. The study also revealed that 46% of drivers that committed unsafe acts and 13% of drivers that committed unsafe condition left driving with fatality. While 176% of drivers that committed unsafe acts and 58% of drivers that committed unsafe condition left driving with permanent injury. From the result of the study, traffic law enforcement in Ogun state was not adequate and effective.

 

http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/njt.v38i4.7

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Published

2019-09-28

Issue

Section

Building, Civil & Geotechnical Engineering

How to Cite

A MARKOV CHAIN ANALYSIS OF EFFECT OF TRAFFIC LAW ENFORCEMENT ON ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS RATE IN OGUN STATE, NIGERIA. (2019). Nigerian Journal of Technology, 38(4), 863-870. https://www.nijotech.com/index.php/nijotech/article/view/2117